There is at great summary of three US venture capital firms views on structural change in TechCrunch today.
Firstly there is another perspective the hype cycle (see attachment). It maps actual economic impacts against the hype cycle. The outlook for 2008 – 2011 is a slowing of impacts (surprise, surprise) followed by steep increases in 2012 and 2014 (‘the economic cycle concept’ or ‘we live in hope’). The dot com bust over 1999 – 2001 is shown.
To me the clear message is don’t believe the hype – but don’t take your eye off the drivers of change. And on that particular theme, after “years of hope and expectation” the mobile Web is within reach. No danger in agreeing with that.
What really stood out to me was the “continued personalisation of content, commerce and advertising”. In my view, you should add ‘communication’ to that – it’s that ‘mobile thing’ again. The impact of course is a major structural shift from mass media. And again, I think we should add ‘away from one-size-fits-all’ thinking (standardised services).
Risk factors noted were:
- scaling
- network neutrality
- data ownership
