Openness, participation and scale: Web 2.0 rules of thumb

A large part of my horizon scanning research last year was on emerging communications and media business models. I needed to explain the main underlying trends likely to shape emerging value-chains and business models, so I came up with these three over-arching trends for ease of ‘conveying the message’ and to help retain the message:

Openness – socially, commercially and technically (standards and code) driving a culture of collaboration

Participation- the people formally known as the audience creating and co-creating, forming new connections and augmenting existing connections via social media and social networks online; and service providers facilitating interaction with their customer and the public

Scale - where location and size are no longer barriers to offering services or content online, challenging the scale advantages of mass media and telecommunications

Those three forces are driving growth and innovation in communications and media. My conclusion was that any communications & media business model that lacked those three drivers had a limited shelf-life.

Why am I posting this now? It was Vodafone’s move to “embrace open source with open arms”. I think this is biggie. Vodafone is a global mobile operator and from a sector that has strived to maintain control over what goes over their networks – such as Skype.  The EU is now on to that.

All well and good – my analysis is standing the test of time. But of course “it’s the economy stupid” applies as well. The global economic meltdown occurred afer I completed by research above and that factor has obviously caused Vodafone to re-think its strategy. No longer in a position to grow by acquisition, the company now accepts that “the only way to create a fertile environment for innovation is to have open platforms and leverage them”.

There is another twist as well. While reflecting on the Vodafone development, it occurred to me that the three over-arching drivers are applicable to individual netizens (consumers) and to instititutions generally as well as business.  To make the most out of the web, embrace the 3 x Web2.0 rule: openness, participation and scale. Of course there are major challenges to people and organisations taking up that challenge: the modus operandi for the 20th century has been one of control and acting independently.  Now we are in a century of co-dependence and collaboration – at least that is where innovation and growth is coming from. Perhaps a more apt phrase is “it’s the culture, stupid”.

Trends and developments in communications and media technology, applications and use

Chris Chapman, chair of the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) released the Trends in Communications & Media Technology, Applications and Use at the CommsDay Summit on 31 March 2009.  A copy of the report is available here. The report identified five key developments that are putting pressure on media and communications regulation.

‘Investment in broadband, digital and Internet-Protocol (IP)-based infrastructure, and the ongoing evolution in web standards are influencing technology developments in Australia,’ said Mr Chapman.

Internet Protocol (IP) is becoming increasingly integrated across a range of networks and services. The key developments evident from the embedding of IP platforms are:

• an increasing use of IP-based video across a range of networks and applications providing further impetus for professionally produced content on the internet;
• a continued evolution in cellular and other wireless networks and mobile operating systems, all capable of supporting packet-based transmissions and new software applications; and
• the use of web-based computing systems like cloud computing that enables use of centralised computing services, which will materially influence the way people work and the way companies operate.

The rapid expansion of social media meanwhile is fuelling developments in:

• social networking and the rise of new media influencers; and
• the personalisation of web experiences, including location-based services.

New emerging regulatory challenges identified in the report include:

• an increasing public interest in data portability between web service providers, and the management of online identity, data and reputation; and
• the impact of evolving cyber-crime economies which operate across the internet.

Some of the changes identified further embed established regulatory pressure points, particularly:

• the increasing demand for and use of radiofrequency spectrum to support IP-based services and the evolution of high speed data on mobile networks;
• managing privacy where there is an increase in location-aware services and the use of personal information for behavioural marketing; and
• changes in the way content is produced that allows distribution across multiple platforms.

‘While expectations in the short-term are likely to be qualified by the current economic downturn, the developments and trends outlined in the report indicate ongoing significant change in the sector over the next five to 10 years,’ Mr Chapman said.

Mobile phones five years from now

According to Adaptive-Path, a user-experience and design-consulting firm, mobile phones in five years time are likely respond to voice commands & gestures (as well as touch – iPhone style touch that is). They will look like  a “piece of metal and plastic with a few grooves in it and little more [and will] mimic the touch, sight, gesture and auditory feeds that we use to interact with our environment”. So sensible!

Check out the detail in the Wired gadgets blog.

So, no more buttons. Yes folks, hold off those plans to get txting-friendly plastic surgery for your hands. Enabling technologies include haptics, advanced speech recognition and motion sensors.

Other neat features include integrated GPS and camera functionality to provide image-recognition and bring up information about the object the camera points to. We’re talking information-empowered consumers here.

The article has some interesting background to the development of predictive input that cuts down on a lot of thumb-twiddling. Turns out that Cliff Kushler, one of the guys who invented the predictive-text input system, started out with the intent of making it easier for disabled people to interact with their phones. Cliff’s latest venture is Swype (no, I did not mis-spell that). Swype allows users to draw a line under the selected letters on an onscreen QWERTY keypad rather than tapping on a touchscreen keypad. It works faster.

The article concludes with an astute observation: that the changes outlined are likely to be introduced incrementally rather than shocking consumers with too much change at once; and the technology to enable the phone in five years time is already present. The change will be in “looking at how to put those bits together in different ways to create innovative solutions”.