Convergence Emergence

Entries tagged as ‘Technology trends’

Trends and developments in communications and media technology, applications and use

April 4, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Chris Chapman, chair of the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) released the Trends in Communications & Media Technology, Applications and Use at the CommsDay Summit on 31 March 2009.  A copy of the report is available here. The report identified five key developments that are putting pressure on media and communications regulation.

‘Investment in broadband, digital and Internet-Protocol (IP)-based infrastructure, and the ongoing evolution in web standards are influencing technology developments in Australia,’ said Mr Chapman.

Internet Protocol (IP) is becoming increasingly integrated across a range of networks and services. The key developments evident from the embedding of IP platforms are:

  • an increasing use of IP-based video across a range of networks and applications providing further impetus for professionally produced content on the internet;
  • a continued evolution in cellular and other wireless networks and mobile operating systems, all capable of supporting packet-based transmissions and new software applications; and
  • the use of web-based computing systems like cloud computing that enables use of centralised computing services, which will materially influence the way people work and the way companies operate.

The rapid expansion of social media meanwhile is fuelling developments in:

  • social networking and the rise of new media influencers; and
  • the personalisation of web experiences, including location-based services.

New emerging regulatory challenges identified in the report include:

  • an increasing public interest in data portability between web service providers, and the management of online identity, data and reputation; and
  • the impact of evolving cyber-crime economies which operate across the internet.

Some of the changes identified further embed established regulatory pressure points, particularly:

  • the increasing demand for and use of radiofrequency spectrum to support IP-based services and the evolution of high speed data on mobile networks;
  • managing privacy where there is an increase in location-aware services and the use of personal information for behavioural marketing; and
  • changes in the way content is produced that allows distribution across multiple platforms.

‘While expectations in the short-term are likely to be qualified by the current economic downturn, the developments and trends outlined in the report indicate ongoing significant change in the sector over the next five to 10 years,’ Mr Chapman said.

Categories: Internet · Social media · drivers of change · technology
Tagged: ,

Mobile phones five years from now

December 5, 2008 · Leave a Comment

According to Adaptive-Path, a user-experience and design-consulting firm, mobile phones in five years time are likely respond to voice commands & gestures (as well as touch – iPhone style touch that is). They will look like  a “piece of metal and plastic with a few grooves in it and little more [and will] mimic the touch, sight, gesture and auditory feeds that we use to interact with our environment”. So sensible!

Check out the detail in the Wired gadgets blog.

So, no more buttons. Yes folks, hold off those plans to get txting-friendly plastic surgery for your hands. Enabling technologies include haptics, advanced speech recognition and motion sensors.

Other neat features include integrated GPS and camera functionality to provide image-recognition and bring up information about the object the camera points to. We’re talking information-empowered consumers here.

The article has some interesting background to the development of predictive input that cuts down on a lot of thumb-twiddling. Turns out that Cliff Kushler, one of the guys who invented the predictive-text input system, started out with the intent of making it easier for disabled people to interact with their phones. Cliff’s latest venture is Swype (no, I did not mis-spell that). Swype allows users to draw a line under the selected letters on an onscreen QWERTY keypad rather than tapping on a touchscreen keypad. It works faster.

The article concludes with an astute observation: that the changes outlined are likely to be introduced incrementally rather than shocking consumers with too much change at once; and the technology to enable the phone in five years time is already present. The change will be in “looking at how to put those bits together in different ways to create innovative solutions”.

Categories: technology
Tagged: ,

Mind over Matter

September 2, 2008 · Leave a Comment

On 26 August I had the great good fortune to attend the Mind over Matter – How Technology Matters seminar hosted by education.au.

Professor Martin Westell’s topic was how technology is impacting on attention, motivation, multi-tasking, learning and work. This posting is to share my notes on multi-tasking, media consumption, evidence-based decision-making, the pace of change looking forward and ways to deal with that. The speech marks are quotes from Prof. Westell.

Multi-tasking
One surprise for me was to learn that young people are not so good at multi-tasking (e.g. consuming multiple media at the same time). It was surprising in that, a not unusual comment at media conferences  is for one of the speakers to talk about their son or daughter’s ability to watch TV, txt friends and update their MySpace/Bebo or Facebook profile all at the same time. As it turns out, that all seems to be something of a myth. Adults in are not so adept at multi-tasking either,but they are better at it than young people. It seems that what people do is to shift their attention from one task to another. So a young person would send an SMS, then check out YouTube, then turn to whatever is on TV – sequentially, not simultaneously. Media consumption is episodic. Check out the research referred to by Prof. Westell here.
The relationship between multi-tasking and media consumption appears at first to be at odds with recent data about people consuming more media at the same time. The point to note however, as Ross Dawson as observed, the implications are that “Most media will be consumed with partial attention. Advertising impact will decrease”.
The point about ‘partial attention’ is consistent with the ’scarcity of attention’ phenomenon as observed by Brian Solis.
Adults are better at multi-tasking because they have more highly developed ‘executive functions’ (such as inhibiting impulses and paying attention). Younger people do not have the same attention-holding ability as adults – that probably explains why kids appear to be consuming multiple media at the same time. They just flip quickly from one to another.
On the Impact of ICT
It is important for the ’system’ (i.e educational institutions, service providers, regulators) to understand – at a reasonably deep, rather than surface level – what ICT experiences students have. Where there is a lack of understanding “the system retreats” (eg. where schools ban access to YouTube and social networking sites).
Young people are better at discerning authentic & synthetic messages (eg. after MySpace introduced advertising, some young people left the service).
Socialisation (not information) is now the primary use of the Internet. “It’s not the technology that changes the way you think, it’s about you and what you do with it”.
Young people experience violence online in a similar way to real violence (ie. their brain reactions are similar).  A young person experiencing a lot of violence online becomes more violent in the real world. Their online experience changes their worldview and interaction with others in the real-world. This can have positive effects as well, depending on the virtual experience. Online video game players apparently make better laproscopic surgeons. Learning how to take-in massive amounts of information during video games develops a high capacity for attention.
ICT is process-focused rather than product-focused. Demonstratively high processing skills is a key indicator of future success – more so than numeracy skills. The best time to learn processing skills is between 7 – 15 years of age. Happily, learning changes brain connectivity through-out life (ie. it is possible to learn no matter what age you are).
Highly structured learning environments that focus on content inhibits skills-building to an extent (skills such as planning, strategising and prioritisation). More effective learning environments incorporate multi-sensory activity, emotional content and interpersonal interaction. ICT collaborative tools are good for building self-regulatory or ‘executive’ functions. Giving more control to young people over their education would help to develop their self-regulatory skills.
Evidence
We can only use evidence to inform decision-making (ie. evidence is not the sole basis on which to make decisions). Each decision-maker has their own beliefs, experiences and values that come into play.
Forward-looking
Prof Westell referred to Kurzweil’s Singularity is Near to suggest that, at the current rate of progress, the next 25 years will be the equivalent of progress made over the last 100 years. In such an environment – with so much change, so much diversity – a distinctive ‘Generation Z’ (i.e the generation after Gen Y) is not likely to happen. In an environment of rapid change, ‘future-proofing skills’ such as creativity and innovation will be of strategic advantage.
Decision-making will involve ambiguity – making decisions with unknown probabilities or unknown outcomes. This means that decision-making would need to be open to possibilities. This is different to making decisions through risk-assessments (evaluating varying levels of probability).
The problem is that people prefer knowns to unknowns, going so far as to sacrifice potential rewards for the sake of surety. Our natural response to ambiguity inhibits innovation and leadership. Apparently ‘neuro-economics’ goes into this kind of thing (ie. ways of getting around this problem).
Professor Westell referred us to a presentation by Ken Robinson on creativity  – one of the messages being that creativity is just as important as literacy skills. Creativity means being open to possibilities, doing new things. According to Sir Ken, “if you are not prepared to be wrong, you will never come-up with anything original”.
On top of the need for ‘the system’ to understand young people’s use of ICT, other challenges are to cope with complexity (fast pace of change), ambiguity and to embrace creativity.

Categories: drivers of change
Tagged: , , , ,

Top Six Trends Communications and Media Technology, Applications and Services

May 20, 2008 · Leave a Comment

The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has identified six major technology trends it believes will have a significant impact on regulation of the media and communications sector over the next five to ten years.

The top six trends are:

  • an accelerating pace of change, driven by overlapping developments in technology and the resulting increase in connections between people, databases and objects;
  • diversity in the development of physical infrastructure, including broadband, digital broadcasting, smart radio systems, sensor networks, mesh-networks, efficiency techniques in multi-media transmission, location sensing and context aware technologies, intelligent transport systems and satellite services;
  • the continuing spread of distributed connectivity, through the integration of information processing beyond the desk-top into everyday objects and activities;
  • enhanced content and network management capabilities driven by developments in deep packet inspection and content filtering technologies, coupled with the need to improve e-security, identity management, intellectual property protection and energy efficiency;
  • the emerging Social Web, acting both as a platform and database, enabling innovation and creativity by users and service providers; and
  • continuing scientific and technological innovation that are, in combination, driving advances in computing power, display technologies, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology.

ACMA’s report, Top Six Trends in Communications and Media Technologies, Applications and Services – Possible Implications provides a concise overview of the trends in technology, applications and services over the next five to ten years and identifies the potential impact these trends may have on ACMA’s functions and responsibilities.

‘Regulatory pressure created by developing technologies is starting to bite into core legislative concepts and definitions, creating strained or ‘broken concepts’. Ultimately, their ‘elasticity’ will expire at which time they will no longer function efficiently or effectively in a converged environment.’ said Chris Chapman, ACMA Chairman.

Categories: Emerging technologies
Tagged: